Obsolete Certainty

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), conservator of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the Enterprises) has established its final housing goals for the Enterprises in 2010-2011. FHFA is required by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) to set such goals for targeted segments of the mortgage market The new rules establish three goals for single-family, owner-occupied home purchases; one for low-income families, another for very low-income families, and a third for families living in geographical areas with lower-income populations, areas with high concentrations of minority residents, or federal declared disaster areas. The goal for disaster areas contains a sub-goal to ensure that the needs of lower-income and minority areas are addressed. A goal has also been established for…(read more)

The National Association of Realtors released the Pending Home Sales Index today. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of home purchase contracts that were signed in the monthly reporting period. Once “pending” sales contracts are closed, they are considered an existing home sale. Because the Pending Home Sales index tells us how many contracts were signed, it is consider a forward indicator of existing home sales. A signed contract is not counted as an existing home sale until the transaction actually closes. Excerpts from the Release… Following a sharp drop in the months immediately after expiration of the home buyer tax credit, pending home sales have modestly risen. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 5.2 percent to 79.4 based on contracts signed…(read more)

The Census Bureau today released Construction Spending data for July 2010. Residential construction spending includes remodeling, additions, and major replacements to owner occupied properties subsequent to completion of original building. It includes construction of additional housing units in existing residential structures, finishing of basements and attics, modernization of kitchens, bathrooms, etc. Also included are improvements outside of residential structures, such as the addition of swimming pools and garages, and replacement of major equipment items such as water heaters, furnaces and central air-conditioners. Maintenance and repair work is not included. The value of all construction put in place in the U.S. on an annualized basis was $805.2 billion compared to a rate of $813.1 billion…(read more)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 27, 2010. The MBA’s loan application survey covers over 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage loan applications taken by retail mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a snapshot view of consumer demand for mortgage loans. In a low mortgage rate environment, a trend of increasing refinance applications implies consumers are seeking out a lower monthly payment. If consumers are able to reduce their monthly mortgage payment and increase disposable income through refinancing, it can be a positive for the economy as a whole (creates more consumer spending or allows debtors to pay down personal liabilities like credit cards). A falling trend of…(read more)

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index was up 4.4 percent in the second quarter of 2010, more than recovering from the 2.9 percent loss that was suffered in the first quarter, but the index committee warned that recent housing indicators “point to more ominous signals as tax incentives have ended and foreclosures continue.” On a month to month basis, the 10-city index improved 1.0 percent to 161.04 and the 20-city index rose 1.0 percent to 147.97. The year over year 10-City and 20 City Composite Indices for June marked the first time in 16 months that the increase in annual returns moderated, pointing to a possible deceleration in home price returns. In May the YoY increase in the 10-City Composite was 5.4 percent, in June it was 5.0 percent. The 20-City figure…(read more)

In the wake of a full week full of bad economic news, especially housing indicators, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Shaun Donovan appeared on CNNs Sunday morning news and interview program State of the Union . Host Ed Henry prefaced the interview with July housing numbers – a 27 percent decline in existing home sales and new home sales at their lowest levels since 1963 . “Many analysts,” Henry said, “believe that housing started this whole financial crisis. We saw some pretty grim headlines this week sparking some fears about a double dip recession.” He asked Donovan, what he could say to reassure Americans that this will not happen. Donovan said that the dip in house sales in July was not unexpected because it would mark the end of the homebuyers’ tax credit that had been…(read more)

The first Conservator's Report on the Enterprises' Financial Performance issued by the Federal Housing Finance Agency on Thursday makes an argument that the Government Sponsored Enterprises' role in the housing market was and still is vital. It also paints a picture of their fall prior to being placed in federal conservatorship in the fall of 2008. Some observers are already pointing to it as a map for the eventual reorganization of the two government sponsored enterprises. Another way of viewing the report is that is presents a strong argument for leaving the GSEs in charge. According to the report, in 2003, 62 percent of all mortgages originated in the country were conventional/conforming loans. Another 20 percent or so were FHA or jumbo loans; only 8 percent were subprime and…(read more)

While it reported that most delinquency figures dropped substantially in the second quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey also carried some dishearting harbingers of what might lie ahead. The report showed the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate for all loans at 9.85 percent, a drop of 21 basis points from the first quarter but 61 basis points higher than it was during the second quarter of 2009. Delinquency rate figures include all loans that are at least one payment past due, but do not include loans in the process of foreclosure. When those are added into the total the delinquency rate rises to 13.97 percent compared to 14.01 in the first quarter. Foreclosure actions were started on 1.11 percent of loans, down from 1.23 percent in the first quarter…(read more)

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans pointed directly to a major problem with the economic system in a speech before the Indianapolis Neighborhood Housing Partnership on Wednesday: a serious deficit in the country's financial literacy. His solution, however is aimed less at eliminating that illiteracy than at incentivizing it in appropriate directions. Evans spoke at the Indianapolis Neighborhood Housing Partnership (INHP) Community Breakfast on the roots of the housing crisis and current plans to end it, but his speech differed a bit form the formulaic presentation given over and over by financial and housing officials. While others have pointed to the use of inappropriate mortgage products as one cause of the crisis, rather than vilify these products such as option…(read more)

FYI: This update was issued to lenders yesterday by the USDA Rural Housing Office….. HERE is the presser issued by the USDA —————————– TO : Participating Lenders FROM : Tammye Trevifio, Administrator, Housing and Community Facilities Programs SUBJECT : Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program Funding Notice Many of you may be aware of recent legislation in which Congress provided USDA with authority to resume operating the Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program (SFHGLP) at no cost to taxpayers. This was done through a combination of authority to: increase the upfront fee up to 3.5 percent of the principal obligation; charge a new annual fee of up to 0.5 percent of the outstanding principal balance; and waive payment of any fees for low and very low income borrowers…(read more)